When we study successful people, companies, or strategies, we only see the survivors. The failures—who may have done everything the same—are invisible to us.
Toggle between seeing survivors only vs. the full population, and watch how the "lessons from winners" change.
What percentage make it through the filter
How much does skill (vs luck) determine success?
Skill vs Luck Distribution
Survivors (20)
Failed (180)
The "lesson" from survivors
The full picture
Real-world survivorship bias
WWII Bomber Armor
Engineers wanted to add armor where returning planes had bullet holes. Statistician Abraham Wald realized: we should armor where there are NO holes—those are the spots that caused planes not to return.
Music Industry Advice
"Follow your passion!" say successful musicians. But for every one who made it, thousands equally passionate failed. Passion is common to survivors and failures alike—it's not what differentiated them.
Startup Success Stories
"Move fast and break things" worked for Facebook. It also killed thousands of startups that moved fast, broke things, and ceased to exist. We don't interview them at conferences.