Goodhart's Gambler

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

You've chosen a metric to optimize. People will now optimize for that metric. The problem? They'll find ways to hit the number without achieving your actual goal.

Adjust the parameters below and watch how the measured metric diverges from actual reality over time.


50%

Higher stakes = more incentive to game the metric

50%

How clever people are at finding loopholes

50%

How long before you notice gaming and adjust

50%

How publicly the metric is reported


Metric vs Reality Over Time

Time → Value
Measured Metric
Actual Reality
Divergence
Metric Shows
+0%
Reality Is
+0%
You're Fooled By
0%

What's happening


Real-world gaming examples